.研究名稱:我國能源長期穩定供應之策略規劃 下載文件
.內容:
摘 要

由於能源為推動國家及經濟發展之動力,可謂一般生活不可或區之重要要素,故能源穩定供應關係我國未來之經濟發展。而隨國內經濟成長,對能源需求亦隨之提高,惟我國地理環境影響,天然資源缺乏,能源進口依存度高,相對易造成供應安全之威脅。若遇不可預期狀況,將對國內整體能源穩定供應會產生重大影響,因此如何以政策規劃將風險降至最低,乃本研究報告之目的。

目前我國所面臨之能源穩定供應問題不外乎自主能源比例低、能源進口集中度高、能源安全存量問題、自運比例偏低、卸儲設施不足、區域性能源合作管道欠缺等;於自主能源比方面,2005年我國掌握天然氣產量1,607百萬立方公尺,佔當期天然氣供給之比例17.31%,國內煤炭供給41,334千公秉油當量,煤炭自主能源比例僅約1.16%,顯示自主能源比偏低。而能源進口集中度方面,臺灣地區原油進口來源集中在中東,液化天然氣進口來源集中在印尼及馬來西亞兩國。於能源安全存量問題方面,目前對天然氣供應業並無安全存量之規範,應研議評估天然氣供應業合理應儲存安全存量之可行性。至於自運比方面,2003年油品自運比例,平均約為48%,天然氣2004年自運比例28%,顯示其自運比仍可加強。卸儲設施方面,煤炭2015年國內煤炭規劃供給59,400千公秉油當量,目前五座港口進口卸收量明顯不足。區域性能源合作方面, ASEAN+3在2004年積極推動「亞洲能源夥伴」,相形之下我國形勢孤立,應加強區域性能源合作。

本研究報告審慎評估自主能源比、能源進口集中度、能源安全存量、自運比例、卸儲設施、區域性能源合作等項目,降低能源供應地區、外在政治、船運等因素影響能源穩定供應,本報告亦針對國內整體能源供應體系作審視,以確保國內能源供給系統及能源安全無虞。
關鍵詞:能源穩定供應、自主能源、能源進口集中度

Strategic Planning for Taiwan’s Long-Term Stable Energy Supply

Cheng-ban Hsu, Director, Research Division II, Taiwan Research Institute
Shang-Po Wang, Senior Assistant Researcher, Taiwan Research Institute

Abstract

Energy, regarded as the drive behind the promotion of national and economic developments, is a critically indispensable element of the daily life, and long-term stable energy supply therefore is closely associated with economic growth. Domestic economic growth is naturally accompanied with increased demands for energy. Taiwan, with scarcities in natural resources due to its characteristic geographic constituents, relies relatively much more on imported energies, which comparatively translates into more supply security vulnerabilities to threats. In the circumstances of unpredictable events, the domestic stable energy supply as a whole will be greatly impacted. Therefore, the purpose of this study report is to explore risk-minimizing strategies through policy planning.

Energy security issues currently encountered by Taiwan generally encompass low self-controlled energy ratios, high imported energy concentration level, safe energy reserve level issue, relatively low self-delivery ratios, insufficient unloading and storage facilities, lack of regional energy cooperation channels, and many others. With regards to self-controlled energies, Taiwan has control over the production of 1,607 million cubic meters of natural gas in 2005, accounting for 17.31% of the natural gas supply in that year. The domestic coal supply was equivalent to 41,334 million liters of the oil supply, accounting, however, for only 1.16% of the self-controlled energy, which indicates a relatively low self-controlled energy ratio. In the context of the imported energy concentration level, the origins of the imported petroleum into Taiwan concentrate in the Middle East, and the sources of the liquidized natural gas imports are mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. In discussion of the safe energy reserve level issue, there are currently no safe inventory level regulations in place, thus the feasibility study on the reasonable, safe inventory level of the natural gas supply should be conducted. In terms of self-shipping ratios, the self-shipping ratio of the petroleum products in 2003 was, on average, 48%, and that for the natural gas was 28% in 2004, which indicates prospective improvements in self-shipping. Unloading and storage capacities of the unloading facilities for imports at the five existing ports are explicitly insufficient for the planned domestic coal supply, which will be equivalent to 59,400 million liters of the oil, in 2015. At the level of regional energy cooperation, the ASEAN+3 proactively promoted “Asia Energy Partners” in 2004, which positioned Taiwan in a relatively isolated situation, and regional energy cooperation should therefore be enhanced.

This study report prudently evaluates self-controlled energy ratios, imported energy concentration level, safe energy reserve level, self-shipping ratios, unloading and storage facilities, regional energy cooperation, minimization of energy supply regions, external politics, shipping by sea, and other factors that affect stable energy supply. This report also offers a review with emphasis on the overall domestic energy supply systems for ensuring concern-free domestic energy supply systems and energy security.

Key Words: Stable Energy Supply, Self-controlled Energy, Energy Import Concentration Level

 
 
 
 
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