研究成果 - 本欄所刊載之文章係屬作者個人看法,並不必然代表本院立場。
.研究名稱:因應後京都時期我國汽電共生系統發展效益探討 下載文件
.內容:
摘 要

民國94年2月16日京都議定書正式生效,對已開發國家溫室氣體排放量進行管制,為落實減緩全球氣候暖化目標跨出一大步。我國雖非氣候變化綱要公約締約國,但京都議定書生效已使國人深切體認永續發展--經濟、環境及社會三者平衡發展之重要性。有鑑於此,行政院永續發展委員會決議指示經濟部於94年6月召開「全國能源會議」,其中在能源政策與能源結構發展方向獲得七項具體結論,而推動汽電共生系統(Cogeneration system)發展,更是提高能源效率與減少溫室氣體排放之重要措施。

由於國內外汽電共生系統發展效益倍受肯定, 94年台灣地區合格汽電共生系統家數已達94家,總裝置容量704.6萬瓩,占全國16.6%。本文將分別就國家整體、台電公司及汽電業者等層面進行台灣地區汽電共生系統效益評估;其中,有關汽電共生餘電替代成本與效益之估算,將運用發電避免成本分析法(Avoided Cost Analysis)比較台電公司購買汽電共生餘電替代成本與本身機組發電成本之差異,作為效益衡量標準。另外,採判斷抽樣法(judgment sampling)選取 36個樣本日進行94年汽電共生餘電替代台電機組發電成本之推估,其結果指出:94年台電公司收購汽電共生餘電約可減少支出58.53億元;同時更可創造國家與汽電業者之效益,估計達新台幣198.83億元。其中,值得一提的是,節約能源、減少線損及溫室氣體排放等效益高達105.11億元,顯見推動汽電共生廠之設置除可創造政府、台電公司及汽電共生業者三贏之局面,更可達成後京都時期政府積極推動之溫室氣體減量政策目標,未來實值得擴大實施。

關鍵詞:後京都時期,汽電共生系統,避免成本,發展策略

Study on the Development of the Cogeneration Systems in Taiwan in the Post-Kyoto Protocol Era

Abstract

The formal implementation of the Kyoto Protocol on February 16, 2005 has instituted control measures on the greenhouse gases(GHG) emission volumes of developed countries, as a major stride in achieving the goal of mitigating global warming. Although Taiwan is not a signatory member state of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol has profoundly reinforced the understanding of the people in Taiwan about sustainable developments and the importance of a balanced, trilateral development between the economy, environment, and society. In view of this importance, the Sustainable Development Committee of the Executive Yuan passed the resolution to instruct the Ministry of Economic Affairs to convene the National Energy Conference in June 2005, at which seven solid conclusions were reached especially for the Energy Policy and Energy Structure Development directions. Thus the promotion of the cogeneration systems development is a critical measure of further enhancing energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions.

With the fact that the effectiveness associated with the development of cogeneration systems has been highly recognized, after over a decade of promotion, the number of lawfully-complied cogeneration systems installers reached 94 in 2005, with a total power generation capacity of 7.046 million kilowatts, accounting for 16.6% of the national power generation. this article will assess the effectiveness of cogeneration systems in Taiwan at the multiple latitudes – at the national level, from the perspective of the Taipower Company (TPC), and from the position of cogeneration systems suppliers. With regards to the cost and effectiveness estimation of alternative cogenerational surplus power, the Power Generation Avoided Cost Analysis will be employed to compare the variations between the costs of purchasing alternative cogenerational surplus power by the TPC and that of utilizing its own power-generating units for power generation, as measuring benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. In addition, the application of judgment sampling will select 36 sampling days for conducting the costs inference of the replacement of the TPC power-generating units with cogenerational surplus power in 2005. The analysis results indicated that the purchase of the cogenerational surplus power by TPC in 2005 would have reduced expenses by 5.853 billion NT dollars; it would, at the same time, create effectiveness for the entire country and the cogeneration systems suppliers, with an estimated value of 19.883 billion NT dollars. Further, it is estimated that, among all benefits discussed, energy savings, minimized power line damages, and reduced greenhouse gases emissions would result in an economic value of approximately 10.511 billion NT dollars. The promotion of the cogeneration systems installations, as explicitly demonstrated, would not only create a trilateral win-win situation for the government, the TPC and the cogeneration systems suppliers, but also achieve the policy goal of actively promoting the reduction of greenhouse gases by the government in the post-Kyoto Protocol era, which is highly recognized and recommended for expanded implementations in the future.

Keywords:post-kyoto Protocol era, cogeneration systems, avoided cost, development strategies